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Probability - Count it all Joy 1998

"Theoretically speaking… " Now there are two words you won't often hear me say. Although I ponder theories from time to time, I seldom find myself coming up with any. Assimilating facts to support one's point sounds like a highly intelligent prospect, one not nearly worthy of my average mind. Sometimes I wonder if theorists come to their conclusions to prove their view, or confuse someone else's. The extent of my theories is usually: "Miss Scarlet, in the Ballroom, with the rope!"

Take the theory of evolution, which has always amused me. Being a creationist, I find humor in those who credit the existence of an entire Universe to anyone or anything less than a Supreme Being. From my own life's experience, I have generally observed, order does not come from disorder, at least without "help." And of course, the basis for my position can be summed up in one sentence (or verse): "In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth." Period. The Bible doesn't go into great detail about how He did it, just that He did, and that is good enough for me.

Actually, the "theory" (if you can indeed call it that) which has proven itself of most interest to me… is the one of Probability. Now I'm not pessimistic enough to label everything "Murphy's Law" (whatever can go wrong, will go wrong), but I think there is more than enough evidence to support my "Theory of Probability."

For example, as my husband packed recently for a twelve-day business trip, I suggested he take a spare pair of reading glasses… just in case! He thought about it briefly but opted to take only the one pair, which now reside in the back of a taxicab (case and all!)

My theory also maintains that if you spill spaghetti sauce on your clothing, the garment is probably light colored. If the stain is treated and comes out in the wash, chances are, it wasn't new.

Probability tells me if I set my VCR to tape my favorite television program, the Sunday afternoon football game will run over into the evening lineup and I'll miss the last half of my show!

A couple years ago, I had to travel for business, obviously without any of my family. Though I wasn't concerned about the plane's safety, I thought, if the worst were to happen, it would be easier to identify my body if my driver's license were tucked inside my bra. Well, I soon found out that the likelihood of a plane crash was not nearly as probable, as the man at the ticket counter asking to see a photo I.D.!

The probability of my son telling me five minutes before I leave for work, that he is to take treats to the next youth group meeting that afternoon is directly proportionate to the boxes of Twinkies in the pantry.

If a major appliance breaks down and needs repair, the probability is, a second major appliance will break down within the same pay period, both of which will konk out during the 61st month of your car's 5-year battery's life!

And lastly, the probability of my driving to a new address (with or without printed or verbal instructions) and not having to turn around and backtrack would be a poor bet.

Proverbs is full of advice for those wise enough to heed it and the 26th chapter warns that a fool will repeat his folly. If we don't learn from our mistakes, when will we ever learn? My answer to the problems associated with probability is much like the Boy Scout's motto: "Be Prepared."

Buy those emergency Twinkies and hide them where only you will know where they are. Write yourself a note as to where that place is, because you will probably forget where you put them. Set your VCR (especially on Sundays) to record an extra 30-60 minutes of a show. Tape is cheap and easy to re-record over later. Make a policy of wearing denim (my favorite fabric) when cooking or partaking of any tomato-based food item. Keep a line item in your household budget for appliance repair… if you wear enough denim; you may be able to borrow from the dry cleaning budget to offset an overrun. Have a phone book and map in your car at all times and carry your spare glasses. It usually takes just a little planning to avoid a regrettable situation. You know what they say about an ounce of prevention… and if you're really concerned about identification, buy dogtags!

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